Ever had that moment when your predictions almost all come true? That’s been me lately—my 2024 calls on PLTR, Trump, Bitcoin, and Small Caps have hit the mark, and let’s just say my portfolio is loving it. Looking back at my December 2023 predictions (link here) has been a fun little victory lap, but the real excitement? Logging into my account and seeing those calls pay off. There’s nothing quite like the validation of getting it right in the markets.
That said, I’m not here to flex or drop a “told you so.” Realistically—when the market’s in bull mode, everyone suddenly seems like a genius.
I'm starting to get worried about the world economy, and naturally I want to protect all my hard earned money and the freedom that comes from my investments. I've gone down a bit of a rabbit hole recently and I wanted to lay my thoughts out here regarding CURRENCY DEBASEMENT, which I am expecting to be a financial market buzzword in 2025.
So what is currency debasement?
Currency debasement is the erosion of a currency’s value due to excessive money printing. While often confused with inflation, the two are distinct. Inflation refers to the rising prices of goods and services, typically driven by increased demand or supply shortages. Currency debasement, on the other hand, is a deliberate devaluation of a currency, often caused by governments printing money to finance spending or pay off debts.
Think of it like this: inflation impacts the cost of living, while currency debasement diminishes the purchasing power of your savings. When central banks flood the economy with money, each dollar, euro, or zloty becomes less valuable, which in turn can lead to inflation—but not always at the same rate or in the same sectors.
How much did an apartment cost in your area back in 2010 compared to today? Chances are, it’s significantly more expensive now. While increased demand plays a role, a big part of the story is the declining value of your money. And it’s not just housing—have you noticed how nearly everything has gotten pricier? New cars, watches, eggs, butter—you name it. On average, most things are at least 30% more expensive than they were just a decade ago.
That's currency debasement in a nutshell.
Why exactly am I thinking about this debasement so much now?
To sum it up.... the global debt burden.
Governments around the world are drowning in debt, with many countries experiencing debt levels that exceed their GDP. In the United States, the national debt now surpasses 120% of GDP—a staggering figure. Globally, the situation is similar, with many nations struggling under the weight of their borrowing.
To make this relatable, imagine someone with a credit card balance so high that their entire paycheck goes toward paying just the interest—not even touching the principal. This person can never escape their financial hole, and any unexpected expense would force them to borrow even more. Governments are in a similar position, and as economic growth slows, the gap between revenue and debt servicing costs widens.
The Inevitable Path: More Money Printing
Let me start by saying this—I have little faith in modern governments. Too often, they’re short-sighted, making promises they can’t keep just to win elections. Once in power, they inevitably disappoint (Biden in the U.S. and Tusk in Poland are perfect examples of this).
And don’t even get me started on the EU. Its politicians have stifled economic progress and innovation with endless bureaucracy, effectively shooting Europe’s potential in the foot. Meanwhile, in the U.S., it doesn’t matter if politicians lean left, right, or somewhere in the middle—they all seem to fall back on the same playbook: print more money whenever economic troubles arise.
The pattern is undeniable: even conservative, right-leaning governments resort to increasing the money supply, offering handouts in exchange for votes (PiS in Poland or Fidesz in Hungary). It’s a global trend that keeps repeating itself, and the consequences are becoming harder to ignore.
Faced with this unsustainable debt burden that we currently have, I predict governments will increasingly resort to printing more money as a solution. This approach, while politically expedient, will only exacerbate the problem of currency debasement.
The logic is simple: printing money is easier than cutting spending, raising taxes, or attempting structural reforms. However, this will accelerate the decline in purchasing power and create long-term instability in fiat currencies like the dollar or euro.
As prices continue to rise, the money sitting in your bank account will steadily lose its purchasing power. This makes investing in assets more important than ever—it’s the only way to safeguard and grow your wealth in a world of inflation and ongoing currency debasement.
What am I going to do to protect myself and fight Currency Debasement?
Bitcoin. Yes, I know.... bitcoin.
I used to be skeptical of Bitcoin (mostly because of the online crypto community), but the more I’ve researched, the more I’ve come to see it as one of the most effective hedges against inflation and currency debasement.
Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, making it immune to the unpredictable policies of central banks. As the demand for sound money continues to grow, Bitcoin's value proposition as "digital gold" becomes even more compelling. Unlike gold, which can still be discovered in new mines, no additional Bitcoin will ever be created. Its finite nature ensures scarcity, and those who hold it are poised to be among the wealthiest in the future.
Here’s my wild 8-year Bitcoin price prediction. I know it might sound crazy now, but let’s put things into perspective. Back in July 2010, Bitcoin was trading for around $0.05 per coin. At the time, even the idea of it hitting $1,000 seemed absolutely ridiculous. Fast forward a few years, and it blew past that milestone with ease. The two biggest factors driving my prediction are scarcity and institutional involvement.
Scarcity
Bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million coins is a cornerstone of its value proposition. As demand continues to grow and the production of new Bitcoin (via mining) slows due to halvings, its inherent scarcity pushes prices higher. Historically, the supply shocks triggered by halvings—occurring roughly every four years—have often preceded significant price surges. For instance, this year alone, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed from $40k to over $100k. Looking ahead, the next halving in 2028 will further reduce the influx of newly mined coins, likely intensifying scarcity and setting the stage for even higher prices.
Institutional Involvement
The growing participation of institutional investors is another key driver of Bitcoin’s value. As Bitcoin solidifies its place as a legitimate asset class, institutions are increasingly allocating capital to it, amplifying demand. Major banks are already onboard, and by 2025, we could see an influx of S&P 500 companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, accelerating adoption and price growth.
It’s important to remember that Bitcoin is highly volatile, capable of swinging 30% up or down within days, as history has shown. For example, in a year like 2028—when I anticipate Bitcoin could hit $300k—it wouldn’t surprise me to see it temporarily dip to $200k before climbing back. To succeed in Bitcoin investing, you need to embrace its volatility and keep a long-term perspective. The price swings are part of the journey, but so is the potential for extraordinary rewards. That’s why I believe buying during pullbacks—rather than chasing all-time highs—can be a smart strategy for maximizing its upside.
Buying Bitcoin
I get it—many people are hesitant to buy Bitcoin because they don’t trust the brokerages that sell it. Setting up profiles on platforms like Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken and transferring money there can feel risky, especially after what happened with FTX.
The good news? There’s a simpler, safer workaround. You can gain Bitcoin exposure through your trusted broker without directly owning Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT or ARKB offer an easy entry point, as do publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has transitioned from a software firm to essentially a Bitcoin Treasury. It’s a great way to secure your financial future without diving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Personally, I am investing in MSTR and ARKB because I prefer to do everything thru my trusted, stable broker.
How much to allocate to Bitcoin exposure?
Like many others, I didn’t buy enough Bitcoin early on, and I want to make up for it. But I started catching up late last year and want to expand. That’s why I’ve decided to ensure that 25% of my entire portfolio is allocated to Bitcoin. While I generally believe in diversification, I’m not a fan of over-diversifying to the point where it dilutes returns. But I also wouldn't YOLO everything into Bitcoin... or anything else for that matter.
To stick to this plan, every month in 2025, I’ll make sure that 25% of my new investments go toward Bitcoin exposure— specifically to MicroStrategy (MSTR), or the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKB). The remaining 75% will go to my tried-and-true picks, ensuring I maintain a balanced yet focused portfolio.
What else can I do other than Bitcoin to fight Currency Debasement?
If you're still hesitant to invest in Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETFs, or publicly traded firms associated with Bitcoin, then the next best move is clear: Technology.
Tech companies, especially those leading innovation in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and renewable energy, are at the forefront of the ongoing digital transformation across industries. These businesses have the potential to grow their revenues and profits at rates far exceeding inflation, making them an excellent hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
Some of my top picks for tech companies that I believe will continue to rise in value include PLTR, TSLA, NVDA, and AMZN. Alternatively, if you prefer a more diversified approach, investing in QQQ is a simple way to gain exposure to all these tech giants and more.
Final Thoughts
The economic challenges we face today—currency debasement, unsustainable debt, and the burden of rising interest payments—are undeniably daunting. Yet, within these challenges lie opportunities for those who plan and position themselves wisely. By investing in assets resilient to devaluation and poised for growth, such as Bitcoin and innovative technology stocks, we can chart a course through the uncertainty and build a stronger financial future.
I once heard that unhappiness often comes from a disconnect between your vision of your future self and your current reality. That idea resonates deeply. It’s a reminder that the choices we make today, especially in how we invest, are crucial for closing that gap. Investing isn’t just about growing wealth; it’s about creating freedom—financial freedom, geographic freedom, and the ability to live life on your terms. Take the steps now to secure the future you envision and truly deserve.
